15.795 Technology Roadmapping

 

Fall 2002 : Fridays : 10–11:30am : MIT Sloan School : e51-063 : 9 units

 

COURSE SYLLABUS, DESCRIPTION & OUTLINE

(DRAFT as of 5 September 2002)

 

 

Prof. Charles Fine, E53-390, charley@mit.edu, x3-3632, Office Hours:  By Appointment

Admin. Support:  Ms. Anna Piccolo, E53-390, apiccolo@mit.edu, x3-6605

RA:  Joost Bonsen, jpbonsen@mit.edu, 617-930-0415

Course Website:  http://sloanspace.mit.edu

 

 

Summary – Technology Roadmapping (TRM for short) is a 9 unit Fall Semester 2002 Masters Research Seminar on exploring long-term industry dynamics of emerging technologies.  Students perform original work crafting or enhancing a Roadmap in a technology-business domain of their choice.  Thesis & Special Project opportunities are offered & encouraged.

 

Caveat – It’s crucial that all participating students realize this is a Research Seminar, meaning that all participants must perform original (and hard) work.  You should be doing this because you think this sort of in-depth research is highly aligned with your professional interests and aspirations.  For example, research you will perform for this Seminar will be an excellent entrée to CTOs, key people in companies in your industry of choice, and so forth.  We, in turn, will be offering sometimes half-baked & even preliminary ideas, sharing lessons-learned along the way, figuring things out as we go, and generally investing a lot of time and braincycles into really understanding what Technology Roadmapping could and should be.

 

Seminar Description – This seminar will explore the purposes and development of Technology Roadmaps for systematically mapping out possible development paths for various technological domains and the industries that build on them.

 

Data of importance for such Roadmaps include rates of innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate intent, and value-chain and industry evolutionary paths.

 

The course will build on ongoing work on the MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, and begin exploring other domains as well.  Towards this end, we will have faculty guest speakers – mostly lab directors drawn from a spectrum of research centers at MIT – each of whom will share their long-term perspective on their fields and what they perceive to be open and compelling directions for future effort.

 

Seminar Goals – We hope to foster collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT researchers, & Industry Sponsors, cutting across MIT research areas.  Furthermore, we hope this includes Cross Industry Benchmarking, ideally in partnership with Industrial Sponsors of current and potential research at MIT.  We’d like to develop an “MIT Method” of Roadmapping which integrates Technology AND Business Dynamics.  Ideally, we attract students passionate about technology sector – however broadly or narrowly defined – who are committed to producing coherent & complete Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester.

 

Our overall TRM aspiration is to build up a rich and thriving MIT Technology Roadmapping Initiative, one which integrates many currently disparate or fragmented research veins.

 

Elements of the MIT Technology Roadmapping Initiative –

·         Business Cycle Dynamics –  e.g. systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect

·         Industry Structure Dynamics – e.g. the double helix in Clockspeed

·         Corporate Strategy Dynamics – e.g. S-curves & dynamic analyses of players in the value chain

·         Technology Dynamics – e.g. the Semiconductor Industry Association's roadmap built around Moore's law

·         Regulatory Policy Dynamics – e.g. Cross-National, Cross-Sector

 

Purpose of Roadmapping – Tech Roadmapping allows for a technology-and-Industry-level of observation & analysis.  Ideally the effort encourages Broad faculty participation, drawn from Multi-Disciplinary parts of the Institute, so as to cover the Emerging Technology spectrum and assessment of Business Implications of Technology trends.  If done well, this offers a unifying, big-picture perspective, and a long-term “futurecasting” view.  Furthermore, we are neutral-ground for discussion among industry players & MIT research sponsors.

 

Possible Benefits of TRM

·         We closely observe Value Chain Evolution over time,

·         Language for discussion between business & technology world

·         Structured basis for interaction Cross Value Chains, between academia & industry, spanning basic research through application

·         Bridging between vertical “silos” of research – e.g. MicroPhotonics à LIDS à Media Lab à eBiz Center

·         Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps

·         Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up (generally)

 

Technology Roadmapping Essentials

·         Performance indicators

·         Innovations over time, trendlines

·         Physical limitations

·         Value Chains

·         Industry Structure

 

Examples of Degrees of Technology Aggregation

·         Communications Roadmap

o        Optical Communications

§         MicroPhotonics

o        Wireless         

§         Personal Area Networking

§         Cellular G3, G4, G5

·         Medical Imaging

o        MRI

§         Functional MRI

·         Nanotechnology

o        Precision Engineering

§         AFM

·         Biological Engineering

o        Bacterial Robotics

 

Enrollment & Expectations – Open to truly dedicated students who commit to active attendance, the readings, the necessary independent research, & crafting a high-quality Technology Roadmap in your technology domain of choice.

 

Attendance – Required participation in the TRM Seminar is quite intensive and includes attending all Friday sessions as well as relevant technology seminars in labs throughout MIT, local conferences, and the like.  We have appended links to calendars and event listings, but these are not exhaustive, so please seek out further offerings most connected to your TRM domain of choice.

 

Furthermore, we will be scheduling formal meetings in the last third of the semester with each TRM individual or team effort.  The is specifica

 

Readings – We have appended lists of both Roadmapping links at & beyond MIT and will have additional updates and recommendation online and sent to you via email.  You will note from the grading schema that we actively encourage and reward those of you who add to our library of TRM links and thus help one another.

 

Assignments – We have three basic, escalating assignments.

1.      MiniMap -- we would like you to pick a preliminary technology area and prepare a MiniMap by Week 3 (September 20th).  You may do this as individuals or teams.  A MiniMap is a “quick’n’dirty” 5-10 PowerPoint slideshow highlighting key information about your area of interest and the top open questions and concerns you and industry players have about future technology trends.

2.      Update -- we would like you to hone in on your principal technology area and work intensively to prepare your roadmap.  You’ll be presenting 5-10 slide updates on your TRM effort, highlighting especially things which you think are unique to your sector, especially worth sharing, open areas of concern and uncertainty, and so forth.  This is not intended to be a final presentation or performance.

3.      TRM Finale-- we would like to you prepare a logical and exhaustive TRM compilation by the end of the semester.  While this is necessarily a “living document” and we fully expect you and/or future students to extend and expand on it, nevertheless we would like this to be as complete a snapshot of understanding in your technology-industry sector as possible.  Between the Update and the Finale, we will be formally meeting

 

Grading – Students are graded 20% based on class participation & attendance, 15% on progress report presentations & documentation, 45% on the quality & content of the final TRM presentation & documentation, 5% for adding novel reference material to our library of links and TRM documentation, and 15% discretionary for demonstrably helping classmates improve their roadmapping abilities, sharing lessons-learned, and generally going “above & beyond.”

 

Potential MIT Technology Roadmap Domains – Students pick their own Technology & Industry domain of greatest interest.  Example domains include, but are not limited to:  Nanotechnology, BioInformatics, Medical Devices, OrganoElectronics, MEMS, MicroPhotonics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, NeuroMedical Imaging, Neurotechnology, Penny Diagnostics, and more

 

Teamwork – We allow students to work either alone or in teams of 2 or 3 consisting of people of their own choice.  For grading purposes, teamwork will be judged per-capita, with special effort made to assess individual contribution within the team.  We will not tolerate free-riders in this seminar; everyone must be a full contributor.

 

 

Calendar

Version 020905

 

#

Date

Topic

Speaker

Status

Assignment

1

9/6

Introduction

Fine

Confirmed

Student email top 3-5 tech sectors of interest & mini-bio

2

9/13

TeleCom’n Roadmap

Fine

Confirmed

Luncheon after for mixing

3

9/20

Student Presentations

--

--

Students present MiniMaps

4

9/27

OPEN

 

 

--

5

10/4

Neuro/Medical Imaging

Rosen, Sorensen

Confirmed

--

6

10/11

Sloan 50th Panel

Brown, Brooks, Lundquist, et al

Confirmed

--

7

10/18

CO2 Sequestration / Environmental

Jacoby, Herzog, McFarland

Confirmed

 

8

10/25

MEMS Devices & Economics of Manufacturing

Schmidt

Confirmed

--

9

11/1

Student Presentations

--

--

--

10

11/8

Conference

TBD

In Process

Participating in Telecom TRM Conference

11

11/18

Aerospace

Bozdogan

Inviting

--

12

11/22

Biological Engineering

Lauffenberger

Confirmed

--

--

11/29

THANKSGIVING

--

--

--

13

12/6

Student Presentations

--

--

Complete TRM Finale!

 

12/13

POST CLASSES?

?

?

?

 

 

MIT Roadmapping-Related Links

 

MIT Emerging Technology Matrix:

http://web.media.mit.edu/~davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html

 

MicroPhotonics Center Roadmapping Effort

http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu

 

Example TRM Theses

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspeed/main.html

 

 

Other Roadmapping Efforts

 

ITRS – International Technology Roadmapping for Semiconductors

http://public.itrs.net/

 

ITRS 2001 Executive Summary Report

http://public.itrs.net/Files/2001ITRS/ExecSum.pdf

 

Intel’s Perspective on the ITRS

http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/itroadmap.htm

 

Aerospace Tango Project

http://www.tangoecproject.com/homepage.htm

 

Electricity Technology Roadmap

http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadmap/

 

Steel Industry Technology Roadmap

http://www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm

 

Lighting Technology Roadmap

http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/

 

Robotics & Intelligent Machines RM

http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm

 

Compound Semiconductor

http://ncsr.csci-va.com

 

Computational Chemistry RM

http://www.ccrhq.org/vision/index/roadmaps/

 

Technology Seminar Series, Lectures, and Conferences

 

General

All MIT Research Centers & Labs

http://web.mit.edu/research.html

 

ILP’s Conference Series on Technology & the Corporation

http://ilp.mit.edu/ilp/Conferences/Current.html

Past Conferences (and Proceedings)

http://ilp.mit.edu/ilp/Conferences/Past.html

 

ILP’s CTO Lecture Series

http://ilp.mit.edu/ilp/Conferences/CTO.html

 

ILP’s Industry Leader Lecture Series

http://ilp.mit.edu/ilp/Conferences/Industry.html

 

General MIT Events

http://events.mit.edu

 

 

Specific

MicroPhotonics Center Seminars

http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem-series.shtml

 

Lab for Energy & the Environment Calendar

http://lfee.mit.edu/calendar/

 

AI Lab Talks & Seminars

http://www.ai.mit.edu/events/talks/talks.shtml

 

LCS Calendar of Events

http://www.lcs.mit.edu/calendar/index.phtml

 

MTL VLSI Seminar Series

http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/9Semi/Fall02/ALL.html

 

McGovern Institute for Brain Research

http://web.mit.edu/mcgovern/html/Events_and_Seminars/events_and_seminars.shtml

 

Nanostructures Seminar Series

http://nanoweb.mit.edu/seminar%20info/seminars.html

 

…and many more out there

Possible Tech Roadmapping Technology Domains include, but are not limited to:

 

Established

Semiconductors

Photonics

Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics

Wireless

MEMS

Smart Materials

Cyrogenics

 

Emerging

Soft Lithography

Neurotechnology

Nanotechnology

Organotechnology

Biological Engineering

Gerontechnology

Autonomous Systems

 

Books that address various aspects of the topic include:

 

·         Clockspeed:  Winning Industry Control in the Age of Temporary Advantage, Charles H. Fine, Perseus Books, 1998.

 

·         Strategic Operations:  Competing through Capabilities, Robert H. Hayes, Gary P. Pisano, and David M. Upton, Harvard Business School, 1996

 

·         Operations Strategies for Competitive Advantage:  Text and Cases, E.C. Etienne-Hamilton, Dryden Press, 1994

 

·         Manufacturing Strategy:  Text and Cases, Terry Hill, Richard D. Irwin, 1994.

 

·         Mass Customization:  The New Frontier in Business Competition, B. Joseph Pine II, Harvard Business School Press, 1993.

 

·         Operations Strategy:  Text and Cases, David A. Garvin, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1992.

 

·         The Machine that Changed the World:  The Story of Lean Production, James P. Womack, Daniel T. Jones, and Daniel Roos, Rawson Associates, 1990.

 

·         Revitalizing Manufacturing:  Text and Cases, Janice A. Klein, Irwin, 1990.

 

·         Made In America:  Regaining the Productive Edge, Michael L. Dertouzos, Richard K. Lester, and Robert M. Solow, MIT Press, 1989.

 

·         Dynamic Manufacturing:  Creating the Learning Organization, Robert H. Hayes, Steven C. Wheelwright, and Kim B. Clark, The Free Press, 1988.

 

·        Manufacturing Matters: The Myth of the Post-Industrial Economy, Stephen S. Cohen and John Zysman, Basic Books, 1987.